It is currently (and by currently, I mean when you are reading, not when I am writing) Feb. 22, meaning we are fast approaching the best month in college sports. (That would be March, for those of you with calendar issues.)
UCLA, heading into this weekend’s play, is in pretty good position for the No. 1 seed in the West regional of the NCAA Tournament, and in contention for the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed. So the Bruins have that going for them, which is nice.
The problem is, there’s a shot they might not even win the Pac-10, which could cause a No. 1 seed to be in jeopardy. Washington State is currently second in the Pac-10, only a game behind the Bruins, and Washington State and UCLA still have to face off in Pullman.
While I realize that any scenario involving the Cougars beating out the Bruins for the Pac-10 title would probably be the most significant sign of the end of days, it still bears mentioning that if the Cougars go 4-0 over the last stretch of games, they will at least be co-champions of the best conference in the nation.
Let’s consider that for a second.
In that scenario, the Cougars would probably get the No. 1 seed in the West after getting through USC, Oregon and UCLA. UCLA would probably get a No. 2 seed and would be in danger of not being in California for the Sweet Sixteen. That would be bad.
The Bruins are 5-3 on the road this year. They are undefeated at home. Ben Howland has said that a big part of getting the championship game last year was playing in basically home atmospheres through the first four rounds. The Bruins will probably be in Sacramento for the first two rounds unless something truly catastrophic happens, but after that, things will be up in the air unless UCLA wins out.
The Bruins have four games left, two of which I would describe as tough games (at Washington State and at Washington). If they can go 3-1, even if the loss is to Washington State, and then win two games in the Pac-10 tournament, they probably will secure the No. 1 seed in the West simply because their RPI will be so high.
I don’t see UCLA losing to Cal (because the Bears are pretty bad) or Stanford (because UCLA will almost definitely be geared up for that game as it will likely be Arron Afflalo’s last home game). I can see the Bruins losing to the Cougars because they have the best coach in the nation, Tony Bennett (seriously, there is no other explanation. That team has no talent). And crazy things could happen in Washington (like maybe Lorenzo Romar will figure out that he should be running half-court sets every time down the floor).
Of course, if the Bruins are firing on all cylinders, none of these games will be losses. They will cruise through the Pac-10 Tournament, get the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament, dominate the first five rounds and then annihilate Kansas to win the championship. Afflalo will realize how much fun it is to win in college and stay another year to play with Kevin Love. The Bruins will then go undefeated to cruise to their second national championship in as many years, thus beginning a string of dominance that ultimately proves to be greater than even the Wooden years.
Or they could get a two seed and get bounced in the Sweet Sixteen. It’s tough to project.
E-mail Woods at dwoods@media.ucla.edu if you think Armageddon is upon us.