Scroll down for Jason Feder’s side of the discussion.
David Woods
So a year ago, Florida and UCLA ended the season No. 1 and No. 2, respectively.
This week, Florida and UCLA are No. 1 and No. 2, respectively.
We’re now something like 14 weeks into the season, and the two teams that were No. 1 and No. 2 at the end of last year are No. 1 and No. 2 right now.
That’s a little weird.
Florida had no roster turnover, so most expected this year’s Gators to be some kind of wonderful. UCLA, on the other hand, lost three starters and was predicted to be a good ““ but not great ““ team by most in the national media.
I, for one, thought UCLA should be ranked No. 2 to start the year, considering I thought the Bruins would be better without Jordan Farmar.
But never mind me straining my arm to pat myself on the back. Here we sit.
UCLA and Florida have spent the most time of any teams at No. 1 this year and have to be considered the top two teams in the nation by anyone besides ESPN’s Jay Bilas.
Because the NCAA Tournament is about 70 percent crapshoot, it would be hard to expect UCLA and Florida to even end up in the Final Four.
I, for one, completely expect UCLA to win the national championship this year, but I have unreasonable expectations due to the fact that this might possibly be my final year as an undergraduate at UCLA.
But whether or not UCLA and Florida end up in the Final Four together, they are the two best teams in the nation. It seems as if none of the North Carolina players improved after their first years, and they look beatable (especially when they lose, curiously enough). Ohio State would probably be a lot better if Greg Oden could use his right hand. But he can’t, so they aren’t. And Wisconsin would be the fourth-best team in the Pac-10 ““ of this, I am firmly convinced.
Those are the top five teams. I’ve been having an ongoing conversation with some of my friends throughout the year as to whether there are any elite teams, or if there are just a lot of pretty good teams.
I think I’ve decided (and yes, I’m attempting to sound as iffy as possible) that there are two teams that, at their peak, can beat anyone below them: UCLA and Florida. I was somewhat doubtful about UCLA, simply because I hadn’t seen the Bruins’ best. Then they crushed the Oregon schools and I was convinced. And after Florida demolished Ohio State early in the season and then performed a second-half blitz on Vanderbilt last weekend, I’m pretty much confident it can beat anyone. After that, there is a very good team (North Carolina), two decent teams in a bad conference (Wisconsin and Ohio State) and a bunch of good teams (the rest of the Top 25 ““ besides Arizona, which is terrible). I don’t think any of these teams, even at their best, can beat UCLA or Florida at their best.
Of course, there are flaws with each team. Florida is so talented that the Gators occasionally become susceptible to overlooking opponents good enough to actually beat them. Most of the time they can turn it on, but there are times when they simply can’t, which was seen in their losses to Florida State and Kansas. UCLA’s problem is similar, but it’s more that the Bruins seem to think they are as talented as Florida and thus can coast through most of their games. They aren’t, and they play in a tougher league, so they need to remember to play hard every game.
So who would win in a game? Probably UCLA. Everything else being equal, Ben Howland doesn’t lose the same game twice.
E-mail Woods at dwoods@media.ucla.edu if you think Joakim Noah is about as overrated as Brady Quinn.
Jason Feder
As the Bruins know from last season, the problem with playing Florida isn’t the Gators’ best player. It’s the fact that they have four of them.
Florida returned all five starters from its national championship team last year and a potential No. 1-No. 2 rematch, though too early to predict now, could spell disaster again for UCLA.
The Gators start four NBA-quality players (Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Corey Brewer and Taurean Green), whose size and raw athleticism pose huge matchup problems for any team, UCLA included.
In the unlikely scenario that the Bruins meet the Gators again in the Final Four this year, here’s how the matchup would shake down.
In the backcourt, UCLA coach Ben Howland would likely stick with the pair of game-breakers he’s started all year in Darren Collison and Arron Afflalo. Collison, who’s one of the quickest point guards in the nation, would guard the 6-foot Green. This would be one of the most even matchups on the court.
Green leads the Gators in points per game with 13.8 and is a legitimate threat from beyond the 3-point arc. He distributes the ball well, with all five Gator starters averaging double digits in points. Although Collison has put up 51 steals on the season, his tendency to take risks for fastbreak attempts could be dangerous against Green, who had only one turnover in last year’s title game.
Collison leads the Pac-10 in shooting with 51 percent from downtown and has almost twice as many assists as turnovers, but he would need to play a career game against Green. Florida is simply too good of a team to turn the ball over against.
On the perimeter, the 6-foot-2-inch Lee Humphrey is Florida’s sharpshooter from beyond the 3-point line. He’s the Gator version of a better-shooting Michael Roll who plays 28 minutes per game.
Afflalo, who is known for his lockdown defense and usually assigned to the other team’s best scorer, would have an advantage here.
Despite not playing well against the tandem of Green and Humphrey in last year’s title game, Afflalo’s 3-inch size advantage and defensive ability would give him the edge. Humphrey would get looks coming off screens but would probably not be a major factor.
In the small forward and power forward positions, Howland would have a tough decision to make against a ridiculously athletic set of big men.
The 6-foot-9 Corey Brewer, arguably Florida’s most talented player, causes a problem no matter whom Howland puts on him. The man most suited to guard him would be Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, whose long frame and solid defense would be the least-worst matchup for the Bruins. Brewer will be a force in the NBA, and him one-on-one with anybody is not a good matchup for the opposition.
However, Mbah a Moute would most likely not guard Brewer. At least initially, that assignment would be given to Josh Shipp, who has not proven himself to be one of the Bruins’ top defenders.
This is where the Bruins would miss the presence of Cedric Bozeman, who limited Brewer to 4-of-12 shooting in last year’s game. Shipp is just no match for Brewer, whose ability to shoot the deep jumper and penetrate the key would cause problems. Almost certainly, Howland would be forced to switch Mbah a Moute onto Brewer when Alfred Aboya is in the game.
In the power forward position, the Bruins would have a tough battle inside against the 6-foot-11 Joakim Noah, who put up 16 points and six blocks against the Bruins last season.
This is where Howland would probably stick Mbah a Moute. Although he is outsized, Mbah a Moute is the most athletic of the Bruin big men and would be most suited to guard Noah, who is a beast on the offensive glass.
Last season, the 7-foot Ryan Hollins couldn’t stop Noah, and the Bruins would need an outstanding effort from Mbah a Moute to limit Florida’s scoring opportunities.
At center, the Bruins would have another key matchup against the 6-foot-10 Al Horford. Though Lorenzo Mata’s inside defense has improved greatly since last season, Horford is both bigger and quicker.
The Bruins would need to double any Florida post player near the basket, which would create shots outside.
When both teams go to the bench, this is one area where the Bruins could have the advantage. The UCLA bench ““ namely Michael Roll, Russell Westbrook and Alfred Aboya ““ has played a lot of minutes this season and would need to keep the pressure on the Gators while the starters are out.
Aboya has stepped up this season and has proved to be a major part of the Bruin lineup, a factor that UCLA would need against Florida.
Ben Howland is one area where Bruin fans can feel comfortable against the Gators. Not that Billy Donovan isn’t a great coach; Howland simply rarely loses to the same team twice.
After an early 88-80 loss against Memphis last season, Howland made corrections and held the Tigers to 45 points in an Elite Eight Bruin win.
Same story with Oregon this season.
If the Bruins were to win this matchup, Howland’s fingerprints would be all over it.
Although a UCLA-Florida championship showdown in Atlanta this year is unlikely, it would be a safe assumption that Howland and the Bruins will be ready to go the second time around.
E-mail Feder at jfeder@media.ucla.edu if you also know that Howland doesn’t lose to the same team twice.