The
next presidential election is almost two years away, but in both
Republican and Democratic camps, some candidates’ campaigns
already appear to be in full swing.
Names such as Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama, John McCain
and Rudy Giuliani are already being touted as frontrunners, despite
nine Democrats and 14 Republicans having announced their candidacy
and a year to go before the first primary election.
The coming presidential election will be the first since 1952
with neither an incumbent president or vice president running,
eliminating what is usually an obvious frontrunner.
Candidates are raising significant amounts of money in advance
of the Iowa caucuses in January 2008. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton,
D-N.Y., has already amassed $14 million in campaign funds, while
Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a Republican, raised $6.5 million
in a single day of fundraising for his presidential run earlier
this month, according to The Associated Press.
In an interview with the Washington Times, Federal Election
Commissioner Michael Toner estimated the 2008 race will be
“the most expensive election in American history,” and
will total more than $1 billion.
He said to be “taken seriously” by political parties
and the press, a candidate will need to raise at least $100 million
by the end of 2007.
Steve Levin, project director at the Center for Governmental
Studies in West Los Angeles, said this level of expenditure will be
important to claim the position as frontrunner as early as
possible.
“In this case especially there are a lot more candidates
so name recognition is a lot more important,” Levin said.
Nonetheless, experts were skeptical that the race is securely in
the hands of the leading candidates.
Robert Erikson, a political science professor at Columbia
University, said the frontrunners are not invincible.
“We have a year till first primaries and caucuses; it
might become apparent that some become stronger, some
weaker,” he said.
He said in other elections there have been candidates who look
strong on paper but were weak when it came to the first
primaries.
Political science Professor Lynn Vavreck said it is possible for
candidates who begin their campaign early to lose support later on.
Factors such as news coverage, scandals and fundraising would
affect whether they can sustain that momentum, she added.
But Levin said for now, the big names are in by far the
strongest position.
“The frontrunners look the most likely to hold onto
momentum unless they do something drastically wrong,” he
said.
He added that the amount of money required to compete could be
prohibitive to many.
“Some candidates just don’t have a chance. Money is
the name of the game if you want to be a candidate in this
election,” he said. Toner called it “a $100 million
entry fee.”
Candidates are also permitted to gather more funds than they
could in the past, as the Federal Election Commission recently
raised contribution limits for federal elections.
Individuals may now contribute $2,300 to federal candidates,
$28,500 to national party committees and a combined total of up to
$108,200 to all federal campaigns, parties and other political
committees.
But Levin added that the apparent strength of the leading
candidates did not write off the other candidates.
“There’s always room for a dark horse. Bill Clinton
was an example of one who started off a little slow,” he
said.
With reports from Derek Lipkin, Bruin senior staff, and
Bruin wire services.