Oregon State’s 33-31 upset over No. 9 USC in Corvallis,
Ore., over the weekend confirmed the worst-kept secret in college
football: California is going to win the Pac-10 title this year for
the first time in its history.
Not only are the No. 10 Bears the best team in the conference,
they are head-and-shoulders better than the Trojans, who are the
only team with the talent level to give the Bears much
competition.
At least that’s what Pac-10 fans should be hoping is true.
No, not because of any ill feelings toward USC, although many Bruin
fans were happy to see Pete Carroll’s 27-game Pac-10 win
streak come to an end on Saturday.
A Pac-10 fan would hope that Cal drubs USC next weekend, because
if they don’t, the conference’s quality bowl bids will
disintegrate faster than John David Booty’s starting spot in
2007.
If Cal can run the table, including wins over USC and Oregon,
then Jeff Tedford can book his plane tickets for the Rose Bowl with
a probable matchup against the loser of Ohio State-Michigan.
As a one-loss team with an undefeated Pac-10 record, Cal would
most certainly creep into the top five by season’s end, but
probably not be able to leapfrog a one-loss SEC team or an
undefeated No. 3 West Virginia.
That would mean the winner of the USC-Oregon game would wind up
in the Holiday Bowl, and the losers would find themselves going to
beautiful El Paso for the Sun Bowl.
For those of you thinking if USC can muster enough offense to
beat Cal then maybe the Pac-10 could get two Bowl Championship
Series bids with the new, five-game BCS schedule, that’s not
the case.
Those chances went out the window as soon as USC lost to Oregon
State. With so many one-loss teams in the country right now,
it’s nearly impossible to imagine a scenario in which a
two-loss Cal or a two-loss USC would find themselves in the BCS
picture.
The best the Pac-10 could hope for is to be represented by USC
in the Holiday Bowl and No. 24 Oregon in the Sun Bowl, with two
ranked teams beating up on middle-tier Big Ten programs.
Looking at the rest of the Pac-10, there are eight teams vying
for just six secure bowl bids.
Although six wins make a team bowl-eligible, seven wins is
likely the barometer right now. Six might not even get a team into
the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego.
Following its 37-15 win over UCLA on Saturday, No. 25 Washington
State looks to be yet another victim of the horrendous Pac-10 bowl
schedule. If the Cougars run the table against the Arizona schools
and Washington in the Apple Cup, they would finish 9-3 and
somewhere in the top 20. But they would still be playing in the Las
Vegas Bowl.
The question has to be asked, what sorts of qualifications are
needed to get a vote in the Associated Press poll?
The fact that USC (No. 9) is higher than Cal (No. 10) in the AP
poll only proves that voters are overwhelmed by name recognition,
and that they have too much pride to admit they overrated a
team.
That’s why No. 11 Notre Dame is still so high, even after
needing miracle comebacks to beat Michigan State and UCLA, a pair
of eminently beatable programs.
Don’t look now, but the Big East is no longer a national
punch line.
Even if you aren’t buying the West Virginia hype,
Rutgers’ Greg Schiano and Louisville’s Bobby Petrino
have built their programs from scratch, and you better believe they
are for real.
The question is how long before bigger programs or the NFL come
calling?