The national perception is, simply, beat Notre Dame and good
things happen to you. The theory is, beat Notre Dame and you become
a great team and belong among the nation’s elite.
On the surface, it makes sense. Notre Dame is among the
nation’s most prestigious programs: All of its games are on
national TV and Notre Dame is usually a great team.
UCLA is a huge underdog on Saturday. But over the past few
years, other underdogs have pulled big upsets against Notre
Dame.
And while beating Notre Dame on Saturday would be huge for UCLA,
it wouldn’t necessarily be huge for the team’s future
success.
I took a look at the past 10 teams to beat Notre Dame, and
didn’t see a trend of vast improvement and unexpected success
for those teams. I put them into two groups ““ the
nation’s elite and those who pulled huge upsets in beating
the Fighting Irish.
Michigan (47-21 on Sept. 16, 2006), Ohio State (34-20 on Jan. 2,
2006), USC (34-31 on Oct. 15, 2005 and 41-10 on Nov. 27, 2004) and
Boston College (24-23 on Oct. 23, 2004) are the powerhouses that
have beaten Notre Dame recently. All were great teams before they
beat Notre Dame and were still great teams after beating Notre
Dame.
UCLA does not fall into the powerhouse group. UCLA falls into
the next group, the group of programs that are generally above
average but seldom are serious threats for a national title or even
a conference title.
Michigan State (44-41 on Sept. 17, 2005), Oregon State (38-21 on
Dec. 29, 2004), Pittsburgh (41-38 on Nov. 20, 2004), Purdue (41-16
on Oct. 2, 2004) and BYU (20-17 on Sept. 4, 2004) all beat Notre
Dame in games that were considered upsets, just as UCLA beating
Notre Dame on Saturday would be considered an upset.
Michigan State’s big win over Notre Dame propelled the
team all the way to a glorious 5-6 record in 2005. And after almost
beating the Irish again this year, the Spartans have played their
way to a 3-4 record. Beating Notre Dame didn’t have any
significant positive effect for Michigan State.
Oregon State’s win over Notre Dame in the 2004 Insight
Bowl meant that the Beavers could finish with a winning record of
7-5. The win had no carryover effects into the following season, as
the Beavers finished 5-6 in 2005 (not even making it to a bowl game
in what was a hideous Pac-10) and are only 3-3 this season.
Pittsburgh and Purdue both have good records this year (6-1 and
5-2, respectively), but all 11 wins came against teams with losing
records. Both teams were decent in 2004 when they beat Notre Dame
(8-4 and 7-5, respectively) but were miserable in 2005, both going
5-6.
And BYU, the most surprising upset of the group, was so dominant
after beating Notre Dame in its first game of 2004 that the team
went 4-6 the rest of the way. After a 6-6 2005 season, the Cougars
are 4-2 this season, with one win against a team with a winning
record (the same number as UCLA, so you never know).
I am by no means trying to say that UCLA shouldn’t beat
Notre Dame on Saturday or that a loss would be better.
But this does throw a wrench into the theory that beating Notre
Dame does wonders to your football program. It only does wonders
for you if you’re already great.
That being said, the Notre Dame game is still very, very
important for UCLA.
A win would be the great win the program needs in the Dorrell
era.
Under coach Karl Dorrell, UCLA has yet to beat any of the
nation’s powerhouses (unless you count beating Oregon and Cal
in down years for those programs), and has yet to beat a team on
the road that finished the year with a winning record.
That ghost looming over the program would be removed with a win
on Saturday.
Also, a win would be great publicity for UCLA, which is still
seen by most across the country as a basketball school only.
Millions of fans across the country will be watching the game on
Saturday because Notre Dame is involved. A win would make the
statement to the rest of the nation that UCLA can play football
too.
In the event that UCLA does win, though, it doesn’t
necessarily mean that the Bruins will become a great team over the
next couple of years.
At the very least, people will notice.
E-mail Quiñonez at gquinonez@media.ucla.edu.