Students seeking jobs after graduation may find comfort in
knowing that economic markers indicate one of the strongest job
markets in recent years.
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com, an
independent provider of economic and financial research, said
workers looking for jobs “couldn’t ask for a more
favorable environment,” as the current job market is the
strongest it has been since 1999.
“Most fundamentally, businesses are in great financial
shape,” Zandi said. “They’re looking for growth
opportunities, and that means more hiring.”
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the national
unemployment rate as of last month is 4.7 percent, which is the
lowest it has been since before the recession in 2001. Zandi said
any rate below 5 percent is an indicator of a good economy.
“It’s only recently that the job market has gotten
this strong,” Zandi said.
Other economic indicators such as wages and benefits have not
risen as strongly yet, but he predicts that they will soon follow
suit.
Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, which
publishes quarterly reports predicting economic changes in the U.S.
and California, said the economy will continue to stay strong
through the end of the summer.
Leamer said the job market is expected to do the same, but
“within the next year, there will be significant softening
(of economic growth), because of weaknesses in the housing
sectors.”
Real estate sectors, including construction and broker firms,
are predicted to be hit the hardest in the next six months, Leamer
said.
The strength of the economy and the job market “go hand in
hand,” Leamer said. Generally, there must be
“significant economic growth before firms make commitments to
hiring new people.”
Conversely, a decreased intensity of work and a shortened number
of hours ““ indications of a slower economy ““ generally
precede layoffs in a downturn.
Leamer’s advice for those currently seeking employment is
to “nail down a high-paying job, work really hard, and make
sure they don’t want to fire you.”
“The job market is tight,” Zandi said. “Jobs
that require skilled and educated workers are begging because there
aren’t enough people to fill them. Especially if you’re
coming with a degree from a school like UCLA, you should be doing
very well.”
But for those who do not have a college degree and cannot
compete with other people for skilled employment, the job market is
not so favorable.
“Broadly speaking, the economy is doing well. However,
low-income workers, or those without skills and education, will
have a hard time, and will continue to,” Zandi said.
The national unemployment rate for people over the age of 25
without a high school diploma is 7 percent, compared with 2.2
percent for people who have a bachelor’s degree or higher,
according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
While both of these statistics are at their lowest since 2001,
the numbers reflect what Leamer calls the
“Hollywood-style” economy, “where there are real
stars, but where there are also a lot of other people
struggling.”
Wage growth is above the rate of inflation for those with
higher-income jobs, Zandi said, but this is not the case for
workers who are working in lower-income jobs.
Leamer said this increasing disparity between people who do well
and those who do not emphasizes the importance of a person’s
“talent, education and hard work.”
Especially in an age where technology is rapidly taking over
jobs that previously required human labor, the job market is
looking for people who have “creative and innovative features
that cannot be replaced by computers,” said Leamer.
“Each person has to bring to the job market something that
is distinctive, something that he or she is really good at that not
everybody can do,” Leamer said. “The job market of the
future is going to emphasize this.”