Wednesday, 17- and 18-year-olds ruled the sports world.
Thousands of college football fans waited for official word that
star recruits they had been hoping for had signed a National Letter
of Intent. Yawn. Signing day is one of the most overrated events of
the year in college sports. Diehard fans everywhere become happy or
sad based on the decision of high school seniors they’ve
never seen play; but have only read about in recruiting
publications. These same fans become convinced that certain players
need to play for their schools and obsess over these teenagers like
no other. It’s all unnecessary. The nature of recruiting in
college sports is extremely unpredictable. Remember how thrilled
UCLA fans were when Ben Olson decided to come to UCLA? Well, he had
exactly no impact on the team this season, because the other Olson
fulfilled his potential. And just three years earlier, Brigham
Young fans were thrilled that the team landed that same Ben Olson,
who was widely considered to be among the best quarterback recruits
in the country. That didn’t exactly work out for them. Also,
in basketball, I remember years ago how Bruin fans obsessed over
Malik Hairston’s every move during the recruiting process
before he ended up going to Oregon. Fast forward to today, when
UCLA is ranked in the top 15 in the country and Oregon is mired in
a losing season. That went just like planned. Recruiting
isn’t everything. Sure, having talented players helps in
football. Don’t get me wrong. I’d rather have a strong
recruiting class than a weak one. USC, national champions for the
2004 season (and only that year, not the one before it) has,
according to most recruiting experts, had a top-five recruiting
class every year for the last several years. But look at this
year’s national champions, Texas. The Longhorns’
recruiting class last year was ranked only No. 13 by Sports
Illustrated. Who did SI (and other publications) have as the No. 1
class last year? Tennessee, which finished this season with a
losing record. According to various publications, Tennessee also
had top-10 recruiting classes in 2003 and 2004. That helped. Penn
State, which finished the season at No. 3 and was two seconds away
from being undefeated, had a recruiting class in 2005 that
wasn’t even ranked among the Top 25. In the same conference,
Michigan has had recruiting classes ranked second, fifth and sixth
nationally in the past three years and finished this past season
with a mediocre, five-loss season. So it’s not all about the
recruits. It’s also about the ability of the school’s
coaches to build the recruits into all that they can be. Forget
signing day. Wake me in September, when the season starts.
*** For once, I have something good to say about the NCAA
““ its release of the Ratings Percentage Index basketball
rankings today is a positive move. Publicly releasing the RPI, a
tool the NCAA selection committees use to help determine which
teams make it into the NCAA Tournament, will make for a little less
secrecy, which is always a good thing. Not that the formula is that
complicated. Basically, it’s 25 percent winning percentage,
50 percent opponents’ winning percentage and 25 percent
opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage, with a small
boost for away wins (and a slight negative effect for home wins).
Other Web sites, most notably CollegeRPI.com, have calculated this
value for every Division I team for several seasons. But the NCAA
hadn’t released its own values before today. Even if
it’s a small gesture, it’s a good thing ““ not
only to have less secrecy, but also in case the unthinkable happens
and the NCAA makes a mistake (with 334 teams playing 28 games each,
that’s not unthinkable). As for how the RPI will effect UCLA,
it will, surprisingly, probably help the Bruins a little. Even
though the Pac-10 is having a bad year, most of the
conference’s bad non-conference losses have come on the road,
where they don’t hurt as much. And surprisingly, UCLA’s
opponents that looked like cupcakes early on in the season
don’t look so lowly anymore. Delaware State, Drexel, Albany,
Nevada and Wagner all have winning records. Combine that with
Michigan being ranked now and UCLA’s only two non-conference
losses going to top-10 teams, and that’s a pretty tough
schedule. CollegeRPI.com had UCLA at No. 12 in its latest rankings,
which will likely help the Bruins’ tournament seeding come
March.
Quinonez is excited about the Caribbean World Series, which
starts today. Yes, he’s weird. E-mail him at
gquinonez@media.ucla.edu.