Three of the four propositions that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger
had deemed essential to his plans to reform the state seemed
destined for rejection late Tuesday night, with California now left
to sort out the effects of the special statewide election results
on the state, its institutions, and its governor.
In the wake of the most expensive initiative election in
California’s history, many say Schwarzenegger’s backing
of four controversial propositions has solidified his opposition
and alienated the state Legislature.
Schwarzenegger had staked a large portion of his political
career on the election, making several of the propositions the
central part of his reform plans and the election the launching
point of his re-election campaign.
“These are the tools he thinks he’s going to need to
bring the state back in line,” said Lynn Vavreck, professor
of political science at UCLA.
Vavreck said a large part of Schwarzenegger’s future as
governor depends on the results of the election.
“If (Schwarzenegger’s) reforms don’t pass, his
job becomes much more difficult,” she said.
Daniel Mitchell, professor of public policy and management at
UCLA, said Schwarzenegger went about the state’s problems in
the wrong way.
“The governor has made a lot of enemies that he
didn’t have to make in this election,” he said.
In January, Schwarzenegger called the special election primarily
to decide four of the propositions on the ballot that he deemed
central to his plans to solve the state’s problems.
The presumed failure of Proposition 76, which would set a state
spending limit and give the governor more budgetary power, means
Schwarzenegger “is still going to have to go to the
legislature in January and propose a budget, and this time there
are going to be a lot of angry people there that didn’t have
to be so opposed to him,” Mitchell said.
Mitchell said what Schwarzenegger needed wasn’t the
complicated plan he proposed.
“He should have gone to the electorate, explained the
problem directly and asked for greater authority to deal with the
budget problem,” he said.
Instead, Mitchell said, what voters got was a proposition that
ended up looking more like a power grab, alienating many in the
legislature with whom Schwarzenegger will now have to work closely
to achieve his budgetary reforms.
Mitchell added that a sunset clause, which would only
temporarily grant the governor the special authority he wanted,
should have been included in Proposition 76, and may have reduced
legislators’ dislike of the bill.
Mitchell said since the key issues that brought Schwarzenegger
into power were electricity and the budget, one would have expected
him to focus on these.
But Proposition 76, the measure focusing on the budget,
wasn’t even written by Schwarzenegger’s office and
Proposition 80, the sole measure dealing with electricity, proposes
re-regulation, something the governor has adamantly opposed.
Mitchell said these factors, along with the presence of so many
other unrelated propositions, obscured the special election’s
main issues.
“The other measures are distracting from the key problem;
they really didn’t have to be there,” he said.
Even more than the distractions, Mitchell said, with the
inclusion of items like Proposition 74, which antagonizes teachers,
and 75, which alienates unions, Schwarzenegger has united his
opposition, making it difficult for him to undo that opposition
when he has to present his budget and get bills through the
legislature.
“If he had just concentrated on the budget without all
these other things, he might have had a better chance (of
accomplishing his reform),” Mitchell added.
But not everyone agrees that Schwarzenegger’s political
future hinges on the election results.
Daniel Lowenstein, professor of law at UCLA, said many of the
predictions made about the effect of the election on the
governor’s political health were exaggerated.
None of the propositions Schwarzenegger had advocated would have
changed the government in a way that would have affected him, he
said.
“The conventional wisdom was that if they are rejected, he
will be hurt politically. I don’t think that he’ll be
hurt if they fail or (benefit) if they are passed,”
Lowenstein added.
Lowenstein said Schwarzenegger needs to focus on the larger
problems the state has, like education, infrastructure and health
care.