Facing strong opposition, next week’s special election may
prove costly for both the state and its leaders.
County governments across California are spending more than $40
million to allow the state’s residents to vote on eight
initiative propositions on Nov. 8, and dozens of groups across the
state have spent more than $150 million to support or oppose
them.
The money spent represents a political gamble by both the
governor and the interests involved because of voters’
perception of their motivations, professors say.
In June, the California Secretary of State’s office
estimated that the election would cost $44.7 million to administer.
Some counties are changing their estimates as election day draws
near, but the cost for the special election will likely be
comparable to other special elections ““ around the $40
million mark, said Nghia Nguyen, a spokeswoman for the Secretary of
State’s office.
Counties are paying for the election out of their own pockets,
but in a proclamation he signed in June, Gov. Schwarzenegger said
counties would be reimbursed in the budget for the 2006-2007 fiscal
year.
Critics of the initiative say the election is an inappropriate
use of money.
“We’re just in the midst of an economic downturn.
It’s unprecedented that this amount of money can be sent when
the state can so little afford it,” said John Travis, a
professor of political science at Humbolt State University and
president of the California Faculty Association.
But Schwarzenegger’s campaign maintains that the election
is worth the cost.
“When you have a broken arm, you don’t wait until
your next physical to fix it. The system in Sacramento is broken
and we need to fix it now,” said Darrel Ng, a spokesman for
Schwarzenegger’s special-election campaign office.
Ng said it is important to have the election now so that if the
propositions are successful they can take effect before the next
election cycle.
Giving the example of Proposition 77, Ng said “the goal is
to get it in place before the primary election so you have one
fewer election cycle where election districts are drawn to serve
the politicians instead of the people.”
But giving direct power to the people is not simple, and it may
put the governor on shaky political ground, some professors
say.
Initiative elections are frequently expensive, both because they
cost a lot to administer and because they require resources to
educate voters so they can make decisions about complicated issues,
said Mark Peterson, a professor in the UCLA School of Public
Affairs.
Holding the special election in November may also benefit the
governor, said Jeffrey Lewis, a UCLA political science
professor.
Having the election this month allows Schwarzenegger to focus
voters’ attention on specific issues and raise money for the
proposition campaigns, which campaign laws would prohibit if he was
within three months of the next gubernatorial election, Lewis
said.
In bringing propositions like 76 and 75 ““ which target
teachers and unions, groups that often oppose the governor ““
to the table, Schwarzenegger is taking a shot at weakening his
political opponents by forcing them to spend money, but he also
risks giving them more incentive to unseat him in the coming
gubernatorial election, he added.
Data on campaign finance activity by the office of the Secretary
of State supports the idea that the propositions are encouraging
Schwarzenegger’s opponents to spend: the vast majority of
expenditures by independent groups in September and October came
from opponents of the propositions.
Special-election spending is also risky for special interests,
Peterson said.
Just as Schwarzenegger risks being seen as if he’s
breaking his campaign promise to not take money from special
interests by raising money for the coming election, groups who back
initiatives heavily risk being seen as privileging their financial
interests over the public good, he said. For example, he continued,
the pharmaceuticals industry has spent almost $100 million backing
Proposition 78 and opposing Proposition 79, but their investment
could backfire if voters decide that the industry’s massive
contributions to one initiative is sinister.
“There is a long history of initiatives not yielding
positive results,” Peterson said.