Diplomats and economists from both sides of the Atlantic met
Monday at the UCLA Anderson School of Management to discuss the
state of the European Union one year after the organization
accepted 10 new members.
Several speakers at the conference supported by the Delegation
of the European Commission and sponsored by Anderson’s Center
for International Business Education and Research addressed looming
challenges the EU faces in the coming months, emphasizing a May 29
referendum in which French citizens will decide whether to ratify
the European Constitution.
The document lays the framework for foreign policy and other
continental institutions, defining the relationship between member
states and laws by which they all would have to abide.
“What happens if the constitution fails is a question
every pundit in Europe is talking about today,” said Geoffrey
Garrett, vice provost of the UCLA International Institute.
Recent polls show 53 percent of French voters would say no to
the constitution. And though public support in Europe for the union
climbed in the 1980s, it peaked around 1992 when nations signed the
Maastricht Treaty, granting European citizenship to the
club’s 12 members, Garrett said.
“It’s bounced around a little bit since, but
it’s really quite low,” he said.
Europe is also wondering whether the success of the so-called
EU-15, the union before it was enlarged to 25 members on May 1,
2004, will continue now that the group includes many former
communist states such as the Czech Republic and Poland.
Francesco Papadia, the European Central Bank’s director of
general operations, pointed to population and economic distinctions
between old and new member states as contributing to the complexity
of governing the European bank and the euro, the common currency
used by 12 countries.
According to Papadia’s presentation, the EU-15 has a
population of 380 million and a gross domestic product of 9.166
trillion euros, with the 10 new member states contributing 75
million people and a 438 billion euro GDP.
Still, despite these differences, Europe must embrace its
expansion as the only way it can grow as a world power in both
politics and trade, said Komal Sri-Kumar, chief global strategist
for Trust Company of the West.
“Even if the European Constitution were to be defeated, I
don’t think the EU has any other option than to accept the
EU-25,” he said.
Support for the EU is strongest among new entrants, Garrett
said.
In a lunchtime address, U.S. Ambassador to the European Union
Rockwell Schnabel described the scene in Sofia, the capitol of
Bulgaria, an EU candidate that signed the union’s Treaty of
Accession on April 25.
Buildings constructed by local companies are going up, real
estate prices are booming and new roads are snaking around the
city, Schnabel said.
Looking further into the future, Papadia addressed
Europe’s decision to begin membership talks with Turkey this
year, which could mark the beginning of the end of that
country’s decades-long effort to join.
For the EU to consider admitting Turkey, a large Islamic state
whose demographics diverge from those of the rest of Europe, is
exciting, Papadia said.
“Turkey’s much poorer than the rest of the EU.
Turkey has a checkered history on human rights,” he said.
“I don’t know if we’ll be able to achieve it. But
I hope we will.”