I watch as much college basketball as anyone. After all, how
many of you watched the Big West semifinals?
Sure, I’m well-qualified to tell you how to fill out your
bracket.
I’d like to consider myself a basketball expert.
But basketball experts never win bracket pools ““
it’s always those people who get lucky and choose Syracuse to
win it all in 2003 not because they had Carmelo Anthony, but
because they thought that those orange uniforms were so cool.
So when my editor told me to write a column on how to fill out
your bracket (for non-gambling reasons of course), I laughed
inside. I’m the idiot who had Saint Joseph’s and
Stanford in the Final Four last year.
Any of you reading the sports section know way too much about
sports to ever win a bracket pool.
But despite all of this, if you want to finish in the top few
spots in your bracket pool, I’m your guy.
Follow these general rules for success.
I know these rules from experience. Breaking my own rules in the
past was often the difference between winning the bracket pool and
finishing second or third.
“¢bull; Think when picking an upset. It’s important that
you fill out your brackets by using your brain, not your heart.
Don’t pick a No. 9 seed like Iowa State to beat No. 1 seed
North Carolina just because you hate North Carolina or like Iowa
State.
You should have good reasons behind your upset picks. Like,
“I’m picking No. 12 Old Dominion over No. 5 Michigan
State because Old Dominion finished the year on fire and Michigan
State comes from an overrated conference,” or
“I’m picking No. 13 Vermont over No. 4 Syracuse because
Taylor Coppenrath matches up well against Syracuse’s
defense.”
Don’t pick against teams you hate just because you hate
them.
Everyone who doesn’t live in the great state of North
Carolina hates UNC and Duke, but that doesn’t mean you
shouldn’t have them both in at least the Sweet 16.
And don’t pick an upset just because you can or to spice
things up. On that note …
“¢bull; Never, ever pick a No. 15 or No. 16 seed to win a
game.
Ever. No exceptions.
The bottom two seeds in the bracket are a combined 4-160 since
the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
Feel free to root for the No. 15 and 16 seeds to win on Thursday
and Friday ““ that’s what makes the NCAA Tournament so
fun. But that doesn’t mean you should have them winning in
your bracket. Especially if money is involved.
(Yes, two years ago, I picked a No. 15 seed to win … and it
killed my bracket.)
“¢bull; Beware of the overrated team from a major conference
that had a really down year. Last year’s classic example was
Stanford. (Insert image of me kicking myself for making them a
Final Four team anyway. Stupid, stupid, stupid.)
So be careful when picking any Big Ten team (yes that includes
Illinois) or Conference USA team (even Louisville) to go very far.
Those teams played significantly worse conference schedules than
the ACC, Big East, Pac-10 and Big 12.
“¢bull; Be careful when choosing a No. 1 seed to lose. Usually
two or three of them end up in the Final Four, so if you choose the
wrong No. 1 seed to lose, well, you can start worrying about your
fantasy baseball team a little earlier than expected.
“¢bull; Do look at how a team finished. All 64 of these teams
have changed significantly since November and December.
But for better or for worse?
Try not to choose the team that backed its way into tournament
and feel free to pick against some teams that are on fire.
For instance, don’t pick No. 14 Winthrop to beat No. 3
Gonzaga just because it’s on an 18-game winning streak.
Look beyond what happened at last week’s conference
tournaments. Don’t pick Texas Tech or West Virginia to go
onto Final Four runs just because they made the finals of their
conference tournaments. Look at the last month of the season.
“¢bull; Have fun. Your bracket isn’t life or death. The
people who take their bracket so seriously that they won’t
root for Delaware State on the off-chance that it’s a close
game are despicable.
March Madness is about fun ““ put the good of the sport
ahead of your measly bracket.
And don’t think you have your bracket won after the first
round ““ one year I correctly picked 29 of the 32 first-round
games, only to finish last in a pool with a group of friends.
That’s hard to do.
But that’s March Madness. No one really knows what’s
going to happen (which is why all those companies offering
$1,000,000 if you pick all 63 games correctly make the offer
““ no one can predict it all).
It’s up for grabs, or in the words of my least-favorite TV
personality, “It’s awesome, baby!”
Quiñonez has Duke over Wake Forest in the finals.
E-mail him your picks at gquinonez@media.ucla.edu.