Gov. Schwarzenegger can breathe a sigh of relief with the
passage of Proposition 57: the Economic Recovery Bond Act and
Proposition 58: the California Balanced Budget Act.
When he entered the political arena, one of the governor’s
perceived strengths was that his Hollywood fame would allow him to
look to the people for support.
The passage of these propositions adds credibility to his
effectiveness in rallying voters behind him.
It also has significant implications regarding the extent of his
persuasive power.
Schwarzenegger was able to gain a majority of voter’s
support for what was, at the outset, a largely unpopular
measure.
“He clearly staked a lot on (the passage of Propositions
57 and 58)” said political science Professor Franklin
Gilliam.
Riding on the success of these bonds were Schwarzenegger’s
money, his reputation and political capital or
“goodwill,” Gilliam said.
“Future favors may pend on past successes,” he
said.
Thus, yesterday’s triumph for Schwarzenegger may be a
promising sign for future victories in political dealings.
It may also signify a bright outlook for Schwarzenegger’s
relationship with the California public at large.
The voting public seems to have listened to
Schwarzenegger’s plea, “California needs this,”
referring to Propositions 57 and 58.
“My impression is that when Gov. Schwarzenegger started
putting his name publicly behind the propositions, they got more
support,” said Seth Masket, a graduate student of political
science, who has been a TA for an American Politics class and is
currently writing his dissertation on California politics.
This success will reinforce Schwarzenegger’s image as a
winner, and give him momentum to demand cooperation from the
Legislature in the future, he said.
“Fame and political power are not necessarily the same
thing, but he (had) to show that, in his case, they are,”
Masket said.
Voter support on Propositions 57 and 58 demonstrates there is a
real consequence of crossing Schwarzenegger.
It shows Schwarzenegger could theoretically run a campaign
against members of the Legislature who did not vote to approve his
budget proposal, and he could be successful in preventing their
re-election come next fall, Masket said.
“The message is that if you don’t vote moderate, it
could cost you your job,” he said.
“It is a credible threat when he has shown that he has the
population on his side,” he added.
Schwarzenegger’s image and his political authority should
get an additional boost from the extra time the $15 billion bond
provided by Proposition 57 buys him to fix California’s
economic woes.
“The bond measure transfers some of the pain (of paying
off the state deficit) into the future, rather than paying for it
all right now,” Masket said.
In this way, Schwarzenegger largely escapes unpleasant tasks,
which would make him unpopular.
He avoids causing “a lot of aggravation both to the
legislature and the general public,” Gilliam said.
“He doesn’t have to make as deep of cuts or raise
taxes. He doesn’t have to alienate Democrats or
Republicans,” he added.
There may be hope, too, that the economy will turn around and
generate new businesses, providing more money in state taxes to
alleviate the debt, he said.
A revitalized economy would seem certain to turn even
Schwarzenegger-skeptics to his favor.
For now, at least, “it looks like (Schwarzenegger) has a
lot of political clout,” Gilliam said.