Despite Gov.-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger’s campaign
promises to preserve educational funding, the University of
California’s budget may be “on the chopping
block,” political analysts say.
Facing an $8 billion deficit for 2004-2005, many believe
Schwarzenegger’s pledged audit of the state budget will not
find enough free revenue to maintain educational funding without
raising taxes or making cuts to other programs like health care or
prisons. And he has vowed to not raise taxes.
“You have to worry about the UC because the way Arnold
talks, he hasn’t given himself a lot of wiggle room,”
said Bruce Cain, director of the Institute of Governmental Studies
at UC Berkeley.
Members of Schwarzenegger’s transition team did not
respond to phone calls on Monday and Tuesday.
In addition to the $8 billion budget gap, Schwarzenegger will
inherit a $10.7 billion bond deficit that will be paid over the
next five or more years. If he chooses to repeal the car tax, which
tripled the annual car fee ““ a $158 expense for the average
Californian ““ the state budget will be off kilter an
estimated additional $4 billion.
Fifty-three percent of this year’s state budget went to
education ““ 12.2 percent for higher education. Only 5 percent
of the state’s $72 billion budget could be redistributed
without the Legislature’s approval, said Department of
Finance spokeswoman Anita Gore.
Even with the backing of the Legislature, it is unlikely
Schwarzenegger will make cuts to other public services, Cain
said.
“You can’t take health care away from poor people,
especially poor children,” he added.
Though Schwarzenegger has vowed to champion education, some
faculty and political analysts worry he is not as passionate about
higher education as he is about K-12. His most notable prior
political experience is leading a campaign for Proposition 49,
which passed last November and grants as much as $550 million
annually for after-school programs.
“The fear is that he will interpret his promise (to
preserve funding) through not cutting K-12,” said UCLA
political science professor Barbara Sinclair.
Unlike K-12 education, which is legally guaranteed a certain
amount of funding based on per capita income, the UC has no legal
formula that dictates its budget, making it more vulnerable.
“My guess is … it will not be pretty for the UC,”
said Matt Baum, UCLA assistant professor of political science.
Last month, the Department of Finance asked all state agencies
to devise plans for sustaining a 20 percent budget cut, which would
be $600 million for the UC. UC budget Vice President Larry Hershman
said if the UC faced such a cut ““ and didn’t cut
university programs ““ student fees would need to increase
$4,000 annually to offset it.
The UC raised student fees 10 percent last December and 30
percent over the summer. UCLA undergraduates will pay $5,819 this
year.
“At the rate we are going, UCLA and Berkeley will look
more like Stanford and USC,” Cain said, referring to the
skyrocketing cost of a UC education.
Both Stanford and USC’s tuitions exceed $28,500 for
2003-2004.
“It’s a bad thing for people who are not poor enough
to get financial aid and not rich enough to pay top dollar,”
he said.
Borrowing money is one of the few options Schwarzenegger has to
preserve the education budget without raising taxes.
With the lowest credit rating of any state, many Wall Street
investors are wary about California. But in the short term, the
state can continue to borrow, said David Hitchcock, a senior
analyst for Standard and Poor’s.
All of Schwarzenegger’s actions, whether in line with
campaign promises or not, will be under the eye of public scrutiny,
as many are expecting the bodybuilder-turned-actor-turned-governor
to fail.
“He is inheriting a very difficult budget situation, and
almost anything he does risks jeopardizing his credibility,”
said UCLA political science professor John Zaller. “Whether
the risks are greater for raising taxes or cutting education or
having the state bond rating fall … is something for him to
decide.”