A record number of Californians have registered to vote in
Tuesday’s election to recall Gov. Gray Davis, and although
there is historically a poor correlation between increases in voter
registration and voter turnout, the California secretary of
state’s office is expecting unusually high turnout.
“All the information the secretary has received from local
officials suggests there is an extraordinarily high level of
interest in this election,” said Doug Stone, a spokesman for
California Secretary of State Kevin Shelley.
When he spoke at UCLA in September, Shelley said thousands of
voters may be drawn into voting as a result of the recall election.
On Thursday, the secretary of state’s office reported nearly
80,000 more Californians registered to vote in the recall election
than the 2002 gubernatorial election.
In regular years, voter turnout fluctuates. Presidential
elections almost always generate a larger turnout than
gubernatorial elections. In all elections, the college-aged voting
block is the least represented at the polls.
Political analysts said voter registration can often increase
without affecting voter turnout.
However, turnout for the recall election is expected to be
higher. Some experts attribute the increase in registration before
the recall and likely increase in turnout on election day to
fervent voter registration movements and the public interest
generated by the recall.
“When something is more salient, it creates more
motivation, more excitement, and more people want to get
involved,” said Matt Baum, a UCLA assistant professor of
political science.
The factors that are contributing to the saliency of the recall
election are numerous. Davis is the first California governor to
face a recall election. The ballot has 135 candidates, which has
resulted in round-table debates complete with personal accusations,
slights and quips. And the recall’s star-studded cast has
certainly helped.
“If you didn’t have (Arnold) Schwarzenegger running,
there wouldn’t be nearly as high of an interest,” Baum
said.
Daniel Lowenstein, a UCLA law professor, said voter turnout is a
dependent variable; its value is determined by the interest a
campaign generates and the grassroots efforts to mobilize
votes.
When Californians re-elected Davis in 2002, a majority voted
against Proposition 52, which would have made same-day voter
registration legal. The voter registration deadline remains 15 days
before an election.
The University of California Student Association supported
Proposition 52, hoping it would ease voter registration for college
students who regularly change addresses.
Prior to this year’s Sept. 22 registration deadline,
numerous groups around the state had been working hard to register
voters.
UCLA Vote 2003 Coalition ““ a joint effort of some of
UCLA’s Undergraduate Students’ Association Council,
CALPIRG and Bruin Democrats ““ made a registration push during
Sunday and Monday of zero week.
In “one of the biggest drives in recent memory,” the
coalition registered about 1,500 students, said Allende
Palma/Saracho, USAC internal vice president and a coordinator of
the coalition.
Chancellor Albert Carnesale also joined in the registration
movement when he sent an e-mail encouraging the UCLA community to
vote.
“One of our most important responsibilities as citizens in
this country is to cast our ballots on important issues of the
day,” the e-mail said.
Carnesale’s e-mail included a link to the secretary of
state’s Web site, where students could register to vote.
Many UCLA students said they probably would not have registered
if it had not been for the efforts of voter registration
groups.