I used to preach about the importance of the stolen base. I used
to preach about the importance of the sacrifice bunt.
I used to think that money determined how good a team was and
that the Oakland A’s were an exception to the rule.
Then, I started looking at baseball statistics more closely than
even I, the biggest baseball fan in the world, ever did.
I was wrong.
Some of my preconceived notions about baseball were
shattered.
Then, I read “Moneyball” by Michael Lewis and now I
consider myself a changed man.
“Moneyball” is a book about the Oakland A’s,
and more specifically, the brains behind them.
Oakland has one of the lowest payrolls in the major leagues
(about $40 million, or one-third of the New York Yankees’
payroll, which is about $126 million), yet is one of the most
successful teams in baseball.
How do the A’s do it?
Well, General Manager Billy Beane and assistant Paul DePodesta
are geniuses and have perfected baseball efficiency.
They have put great emphasis on plate discipline and on-base
percentage, two commodities undervalued on the baseball market.
They also value power, and don’t spend money on speed or
defense.
It has worked for them. The A’s have improved during each
of Beane’s six seasons as GM and have made the playoffs for
the past three.
I’ve verified the validity of their arguments for
myself:
The top four teams in the league in on-base percentage are the
top four teams in runs scored. The worst five teams in the league
are the bottom five in runs scored.
The relation between on-base percentage and runs scored holds
with the rest of the league too, with the ranks of each team in
both categories only off by one or two.
The same doesn’t hold with batting average, except for the
top and bottom teams.
For example, the Cincinnati Reds are 26th in the majors in
batting average, but 14th in runs.
So, what’s the main difference between a batting average
and an on-base percentage?
Walks are not factored into batting averages, but are into
on-base percentages. Walks are not something that just happen, they
have to be earned with discipline at the plate. Hitters that
don’t swing at bad pitches get walked more, and get on base
more.
And more importantly, the on-base percentage is the percentage
of the time you don’t make outs.
Outs are baseball’s time clock. You only get 27.
The sacrifice bunt is making an out on purpose.
Granted, it moves a runner over, but it ruins the chance of a
big inning, letting a team settle for one run, if they get it.
Who leads the majors in sacrifice bunts? The Detroit Tigers,
followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Both of those teams have by far the worst offenses in the
league.
Who has the least amount of sacrifice bunts? The Toronto Blue
Jays and the New York Yankees, two of the best offenses in
baseball.
While the relation between sacrifices and runs is not as strong
as on-base percentage and runs, a relation exists.
And while there is no direct relation between stolen bases and
runs, studies have shown that to be effective, a base has to be
stolen safely 70 percent of the time.
A baserunner being thrown out can kill a rally. Not only is an
additional out recorded, but a runner that was on base is no longer
there.
I used to love small ball as much as the next guy, and loved
watching teams manufacture runs.
Now, I realize it’s overrated.
I feel like a completely different person now.
The stat geek walked a lot in Little League and never stole
a base. He’s the perfect player. E-mail Quiñonez at
gquinonez@media.ucla.edu.