President Bush has declared the war over and troops are already
coming home from the battered plains of Iraq after little more than
a month of fighting. With Saddam Hussein’s regime dismantled,
significant changes are set to occur in the Middle East, a region
long-plagued with conflict surrounding ethnic divisions
characterizing each nation, according to international relations
analysts in the political science department. The changes will not
only be manifested through the establishment of a new government in
Iraq, but will also entail the evolving dynamics in political
relationships between states in the Middle East. Most theorists are
unwilling to predict the length of U.S. involvement in the region,
but many, including political science Associate Professor Kenneth
Schultz, believe engagement will be substantially drawn out.
“Putting together a functioning, freer government in Iraq
will be a Herculean task and will take quite some time,” he
said.
Creating a stable government The Bush administration appointed
former counterterrorism Chief of the State Department Paul Bremer
as a special envoy last week to help reconstruction efforts and
supervise the formation of interim leadership. Bremer, who spoke at
UCLA in early April as part of a teach-in supporting military
action, will face a number of obstacles on the road to a stable
government, said David Wilkinson, professor of political science.
Wilkinson listed the United States’ lack of experience in
creating a democratic government elsewhere, and Iraq’s
unfamiliarity in managing such a government as barriers to
rebuilding the country. He also said the lack of verified and
practical scientific theory regarding how to set up a democracy
could prove difficult to overcome. Add to these setbacks the need
to deal with complex ethnic politics engendered by the cultural and
religious divisions of Iraqi citizens, and the result is a
difficult political situation which will take great time to
untangle, said visiting political science professor Jalil
Roshandel. “This country has a vague perception of what
democracy is,” Roshandel said. “It doesn’t come
by decree, it doesn’t come by a few democratic leaders taking
control; it’s a long process requiring cultural norms to
change.”
A change in regional dynamics While an extended presence in the
Middle East might increase resentment among the Arab world, Schultz
said the United States also has the chance to create long-awaited
stability in the region. With greater leverage in the Middle East,
the United States could encourage Israelis and Palestinians to
return to the negotiating table to hammer out a peace agreement, he
said. Relationships with Syria will continue to take on new
dimensions, as Bush has already warned of severe consequences for
the nation if it harbors ex-leaders of the Iraqi regime. Roshandel
said he expects Syria to use any potential knowledge of the
whereabouts of former government members as a bargaining chip when
it comes to the table to assist in negotiations with Israel. The
Golan Heights ““ former Syrian territory ““ has been
under Israeli sovereignty since the Six Day War in 1967.
Iranian-American relationships will also undergo changes, Roshandel
said, with the Islamic nation finding itself under increased
pressure. Iran was listed as part of the Bush
administration’s “axis of evil,” alongside North
Korea and Iraq. It now finds itself surrounded by U.S. troops
present in neighboring Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as the Persian
Gulf and some Central Asian states. “Iran must feel extremely
unsafe right now, but I don’t foresee military
confrontation,” he said. And as U.S. troops withdraw from
Saudi Arabia for the first time in almost a decade, crucial
political ties with that nation may also evolve. “With the
threat from Iraq eliminated, U.S. troops no longer serve to protect
Saudi Arabia, and continued presence may cause internal turmoil
from government opposition and radicals,” Roshandel said.
“This pullout will be helpful to Saudi security and
survival,” he added.
Reforging traditional alliances The final piece of the political
puzzle involves healing frayed relationships with European allies
France, Germany and Russia. Roshandel warned against a unipolar
system wherein the United States would dominate world politics.
“Such a rigid system is not good for the world as there will
always be confrontations between nations and power
struggles,” he said. Instead, he affirmed the need for
renewed relationships with other powers to establish a flexible
system catered more toward finding peaceful solutions to
crises.