It’s that time again.
No, not Super Bowl Sunday, but Super Bowl week, where more
predictions are thrown around than balls thrown out of bounds at a
UCLA basketball game.
I’ve heard it all this week.
“Oakland will kill Tampa Bay, Tampa sucks.”
“Tampa’s defense will stop Oakland, the Bucs will
kill the Raiders.”
“Oakland sucks.”
“Tampa sucks.”
“The Raiders rule.”
“The Bucs rule!”
I’ve decided to add an intelligent prediction to the Super
Bowl guessing game, and determine, using simple math, who will win
the game.
Note: This is not for gambling purposes. I would never, ever
gamble, nor would I bother to know that the line on the game is
3.5, favoring the team with the worse record. Nor would I know that
the over/under is 43.5.
To calculate who will win the game, I looked at four main
factors. How did the offenses and defenses of both teams do against
teams’ average points per game and allowed per game? And how
did the offenses and defenses of Oakland and Tampa Bay do against
similar offenses/defenses?
Sound complicated? Really, it’s not. I didn’t use
anything above pre-algebra ““ just addition, subtraction, and
calculating averages.
For every game each team played this year, I took the difference
of how many points Oakland or Tampa scored with how many points
each team’s opponent scored, on average. I did the same
difference with how many points the Raiders and Buccaneers allowed,
and compared it to the number of points each team’s opponent
allowed, on average.
The results: Oakland scored an average of 6.6 points more per
game than its opponents averaged. Tampa Bay scored an average of
0.6 more.
Oakland allowed an average of 4.5 points less per game than its
opponents averaged. Tampa Bay allowed an average of 10.2 less.
If the Raiders score 6.6 more than Tampa Bay’s 12.3 points
allowed per game, the Raiders would end up with 18.9.
If the Buccaneers allow 10.2 less than Oakland’s 28.1
points per game, the Raiders would score 17.9.
The Raiders average: 18.4.
If the Buccaneers score 0.6 more than Oakland’s 19.0
points allowed per game, Tampa Bay would score 19.6.
If the Raiders allow 4.5 less than the Buccaneers 21.6 points
per game, Tampa Bay would score 17.1.
The Buccaneers average: 18.4.
Now, I’m going to do something very similar to above, but
look at the five games where:
“¢bull; The Raiders’ offense played five defenses closest
to Tampa Bay’s.
“¢bull; The Raiders’ defense played five offenses closest
to Tampa Bay’s.
“¢bull; The Buccaneers’ offense played five defenses
closest to Oakland’s.
“¢bull; The Buccaneers’ defense played five offenses
closest to Oakland’s.
I determined this using the NFL team offense and defense ranks.
If you didn’t know already, Oakland has the best offense in
the NFL with the No. 11 defense, while Tampa Bay has the No. 1
defense with the No. 24 offense.
In five games against New England, Arizona, New York Jets
(twice) and Tennessee, the Raiders defense allowed 3.2 points fewer
against those teams than their averages.
In five games against St. Louis, Cincinnati, Green Bay,
Pittsburgh, and San Francisco, the Buccaneers offense scored 0.9
points more than their opponents’ average.
Using the same logic as above, Tampa would score 19.2 points
against the Raiders.
Using the same five game steps as above with the Raiders offense
and Buccaneers defense, the Raiders would score 20.2 points.
Average all the averages out, and you get a final score of:
Oakland 19.3, Tampa Bay 18.8. With rounding, Raiders 19, Tampa Bay
19.
But there can’t possibly be a tie.
Use the same logic above with playoff games only, average it
out, and you get:
Tampa Bay 20, Oakland 19.
I call the upset.
The last time the Stat Geek bet on the Super Bowl, his Titans
fell one-yard short.
E-mail him at gquinonez@media.ucla.edu.