The possibility of exile for Saddam Hussein has recently
surfaced as European and Arab leaders try to avoid a seemingly
inevitable showdown between the United States and Iraq. One U.S.
administration official even said, “It’s an option that we
would all hope he would take advantage of.” However, the
peaceful removal of Hussein could lead to unexpected problems.
If Hussein chooses exile, U.S. forces will probably not have
much influence in a post-Hussein Iraq. Without occupying forces,
the ability to definitively eliminate weapons of mass destruction
is at risk. This would threaten a major goal of the Bush
administration.
There is also a good chance of political instability following
the departure of a brutal dictator. The lessons of history should
make U.S. officials wary of expecting a smooth transition of power
as various generals, clerics, or exiled Iraqis vie for control of
the country. Afghanistan is a good example of U.S. military power
enforcing a general, albeit nervous, peace.
The absence of U.S. troops will jeopardize the
administration’s goal of creating a viable democracy in Iraq
and in the rest of the Middle East. The difficult task of
establishing a representative government with a U.S. presence would
be infinitely harder without U.S. troops. It is naive to assume the
Iraqi National Congress would be handed the reins of power under
the auspices of ambitious generals and clerics.
One aspect of exile for Hussein that has not been properly
addressed is morality. Should U.S. citizens allow Hussein to escape
punishment for gassing his own people or for invading Kuwait in
1991? The usual generous conditions for exiled dictators means that
the “Butcher of Baghdad” could spend the rest of his
life on a tropical beach; that’s not bad for a man who
murdered thousands of innocent women and children.
Most importantly, Hussein could remain an obstacle for U.S.
foreign policy if allowed asylum in another country. The image of
Hussein, like Osama bin Laden, may inspire even more hatred for
U.S. policies in the region. He would be the most high profile
exiled dictator in history ““perhaps a dangerous lightning rod
for Arab sympathy.
The search for a peaceful solution to the crisis in Iraq should
not blind the world and the Bush administration. While it is a
tempting solution to avoid war, exile may compromise American
goals, regional stability and proper justice.