I’m sick of it all.
I’ve been hearing it ever since I have been following UCLA
basketball.
“Fire Lavin!”
Over and over again after every loss.
Some have even used sophomoric plays on words dubbing the UCLA
head coach “Osama bin Lavin.”
Lavin is no terrorist, and he has not orchestrated any mass
murders. When the Lavin-bashing has reached these proportions, it
has gone too far.
Therefore, I have emerged from my Stat Cave (in the Statmobile)
to come to save the day.
For all of you Lavin haters (and lovers) out there, I’ve
decided to statistically analyze how many losses it will take for
Lavin to get fired.
That way, until he reaches that number, no one should complain
about him. Ever.
And in case you didn’t notice, I am returning to my roots.
I haven’t used Excel for a column lately, and I’ve
gotten away from my stat geek title. I’ve just been plain
geeky. So, I’m giving gymnastics the week off. I solemnly
swear not to make fun of their glorified artistry at all. Happy
holidays, my diminutive friends.
Werner Heisenberg has his Uncertainty Principle of electrons. I
have my How Many Losses Until Lavin Gets Fired? theory.
For the test data, I looked at six college basketball coaches
who have been fired in the last few years.
Nolan Richardson (Arkansas): He was cut loose for making some
racial comments, but it came on the heels of a 14-loss season.
Bob Bender (Washington): He beat UCLA four years in a row, an
impressive feat until this season.
Bob Knight (Indiana): He’d always been a little bit too
fiery, but Indiana didn’t fire him until his team began to
struggle. I wonder why?
Dave Bliss (New Mexico): He couldn’t get to the sweet 16,
so he was fired. If Lavin gets fired, he should go there.
Rod Jensen (Boise State) and Mike Heideman (University of
Wisconsin-Green Bay): Yeah, they have basketball teams.
I also looked at six coaches who have been on the hot seat, but
weren’t fired.
Steve Lavin: His seat is so hot, the flame is blue, not red.
Matt Doherty (UNC): Finished 8-20 at a school that was second in
most consecutive seasons without a losing record (UCLA was first).
And he still wasn’t fired. UNC is now No. 14 in the country.
Patience worked.
Pete Gillen (Virginia), Larry Shyatt (Clemson), Tommy Amaker
(Michigan) and Tubby Smith (Kentucky) have also been on the hot
seat.
Now for the math in the HMLULGF? theory.
I’m going to compare these two groups of coaches
separately, and use a few main stats: career winning percentage,
last season’s winning percentage, total losses, tournament
success and standard deviations of the above.
After crunching the numbers, I’ve determined the
following:
With 18 losses, there is a 94 percent chance Lavin will be
fired. Seem a little high? Blame North Carolina for not firing
Doherty, which skewed the values.
If he finishes just below .500 (13-14), he’d have a 76
percent chance of getting fired.
Of course, this doesn’t factor in a miraculous,
Lavin-esque Pac-10 tournament run. I can see it now. UCLA goes into
the tournament as the No. 8 seed and luckily wins three games.
So, let the countdown begin. Choose the percentage you want:
11 losses = 52 percent chance
12 = 61 percent
13 = 69 percent
14 = 76 percent
15 = 82 percent
16 = 87 percent
17 = 91 percent
18 = 94 percent
Have fun with the stat geek’s Lavin Countdown! And
don’t talk about him getting fired until he reaches these
numbers.