Feel free to pick a team to win the Pac-10. Just don’t bet
your house on them. With a different Pac-10 school claiming the
title in each of the past seven years, the Pac-10 is more difficult
to predict than any other conference. “There are no weak
links,” Arizona State head coach Dirk Koetter said. Although
most people knew Oregon was the front-runner for the title last
year, few predicted Washington State would climb out of the cellar
to finish second. What does it take to win the Pac-10? Theories
vary. Here are a few:
A Senior Quarterback The one thing every Pac-10
champ for the past few years has had in common? A senior
quarterback. Washington State would be your front-runner in this
area in 2002 with arguably the best quarterback in the conference
in senior Jason Gesser. He passed for 3,010 yards last season while
his team cruised to a 10-2 record. Gesser finished third in the
Pac-10 last season in pass efficiency, higher than former Oregon
and current Detroit Lions quarterback Joey Harrington. UCLA also
sports a senior quarterback in Cory Paus, but few see him as one of
the top players in the conference after last year’s 7-4 fall,
where he failed to move the offense anywhere but backward in a 27-0
loss to USC. He was benched the following week for his off-field
DUI incidents, and finished seventh in the Pac-10 last season in
pass efficiency. USC hopes Carson Palmer, also a senior, will be
able to lead the troops. He has always been the prototypical NFL
quarterback in terms of size and arm strength, but he has never
lived up to his potential. Last season he finished ninth in the
conference in pass efficiency, continuing in his habit of throwing
about as many interceptions (12) as touchdowns (13). Palmer has
gotten off to a hot start in the non-conference schedule this
season, however. Three weeks into the season, he was 17th
nationally in pass efficiency. Cal’s Kyle Boller is in the
third offensive system of his career. Like Palmer, he has been
hyped since his freshman year but has disappointed each season.
Boller had less than 200 yards of offense per game last season. New
head coach Jeff Tedford may have turned him around, however.
“Kyle has as much ability and a stronger arm than any
quarterback I’ve coached,” said Tedford who has coached
Joey Harrington, A.J. Feeley, David Carr and Trent Dilfer.
Arizona’s Jason Johnson is the conference’s final
senior quarterback. Johnson finished sixth in the conference last
season in pass efficiency. He leads the Pac-10 in pass efficiency
after his second game this season, and is fourth in the country in
this category. If you buy the senior quarterback line, you will
have to skip Washington, which features a sophomore in Cody
Pickett. Stanford’s Chris Lewis is a junior but played better
as a backup than last year’s senior starter Randy Fasani.
Cross Oregon State, Oregon and Arizona State off your list. All
three start new quarterbacks this year.
Defense “I think the team that’s
going to win the conference this year is going to be the one with
the best defense. There are going to be a lot of great offenses
returning,” said Washington coach Rick Neuheisel.
UCLA’s got the inside track here. They had the best defense
in the Pac-10 last year, allowing only 320.6 yards per game. The
defense has suffered the loss of six starters, however, five of
whom made NFL rosters. The young defense gave up over 400 yards
last week but defensive coordinator Phil Snow expects to turn his
boys into men again. USC had the second-best defense and looked
strong up front two games into the season. In the backfield they
return senior All-American safety Troy Polamalu. If defense takes
you to the Rose Bowl, then count Stanford out. They return only two
defensive starters. Cal will likely struggle down the stretch as
well; they rank last in defense despite having not yet faced a
truly dangerous offense. Arizona gave up a school record 34.3
points per game last season, but this season they are second in the
Pac-10 in defense after two non-league games.
Returning Starters Returning starters can be
key to a team’s success, as was demonstrated by Washington
State, which returned 19 starters last year en route to a second
place finish. Oregon State has the most returning starters this
year, with seven offensive players and eight defensive players
coming back. Of course, if your players were not very good to start
out with, maybe you’d rather move on. “We have all our
receivers coming back. Whether that is good or bad, I’m not
sure,” Oregon State head coach Dennis Erickson said. His team
finished eighth in total offense last season. Arizona returns eight
starters on offense and six on defense. Offensively, that’s a
good thing with Johnson, tailback Clarence Farmer and receiver
Bobby Wade leading the team. Defensively, the returnees should
benefit from last year’s experience. Washington State lost
both safeties but returns both corners from last year’s
standout secondary. The Cougars also lost three linebackers and a
lineman. On offense they return Gesser and receiver Mike Bush but
must replace tailback Dave Minnich, among others. The team in the
most trouble appears to be Stanford, which returns only two
starters on defense. Arizona State will also be lacking in
experience, with only four returning starters on offense.
“I’m not going to say I’m jacked about having
four of five new linemen and a new quarterback. Nobody’s
excited about being in that position,” Koetter said.
It’s more than goals and returning starters, though.
“It’s not just about talking. We have to actually do
it,” Arizona head coach John Mackovic said. Ladies and
gentlemen, place your bets.