Friday, January 23, 1998
El Nino: Don’t believe the hype
STORM: The big storm that many have been fearing isn’t a
hoax,
it’s just an ocean phenomenon
By Carol McKay
Daily Bruin Staff
We bought umbrellas and dusted off the rain slickers. We watched
hours of ominous "Storm Watch 97" reports. And we waited.
But El Nino never came. Or did it?
"There’s no such thing as El Nino," said Natalie Marino, a
disbeliever of the phenomenon that threatened to devastate Southern
California this winter.
"I just really haven’t seen much evidence of it," continued the
second-year English student, noting that she’s noticed that there
is less rain than last year.
"I think it’s a conspiracy by the clothing industry. They just
wanted to get us to buy warm clothes," she said.
Marino is not alone in her doubts of the notorious storm’s
existence. Due to media bombardment on the subject since last
summer and a lack of noticeable difference in rainfall this year,
many just see the situation as a lot of hype.
"It’s a big joke," said Laura Eng, a second-year undeclared
student. "It’s like a source of blame for everything."
Eng, who said that a professor cancelled a review session last
quarter because of El Nino, expresses a light-hearted view on the
topic.
"When it’s over," she said, "I’m going to make t-shirts that say
‘I survived the El Nino.’ And I’ll sell them."
It’s not hard to understand why El Nino has become the butt of
jokes by many. The entertainment industry is starting to catch on
to the public attitudes towards El Nino as well.
A fall episode of Saturday Night Live poked fun at the storm,
running a skit that had the late Chris Farley dressed as a
professional wrestler called El Nino. An upcoming episode of Third
Rock from the Sun will also have references to the storm as a
phenomenon that causes supermodels to be attracted to Harry, the
alien.
Even scholars of the atmospheric sciences are getting a little
tired of the commotion. But UCLA’s staff meteorologist James
Murakami said there is some misleading information that needs to be
cleared up.
"First of all," he said, "El Nino is not a storm. It’s actually
an ocean phenomenon." According to Murakami, El Nino is a year-long
condition that occurs every two to seven years and influences – not
causes – weather around the globe.
The condition, which is an abnormal warming of waters to the
west of South America, is caused by substantially weakened trade
winds. The weakening of winds is unexplainable, Murakami said, but
El Nino is the known result.
"The only reason that the media gets ahold of it and makes such
a big deal is because it is so well-studied," he said. The
condition has been occurring since the 19th century, and was first
noticed by a fisherman off the coast of Peru.
During El Nino years, the Peruvian fishermen would notice a
decrease in sizeable fish, due to the drop off of anchovies – the
fish at the bottom of the food chain. This phenomenon would reach
its height near Christmas each year, and the fishermen named it El
Nino, associating its coming with that of the Christ child.
El Nino’s occurrence has been recorded for decades by
scientists, Murakami said, with satellites and buoys measuring
temperature, salinity and other factors. But the effects of the
phenomenon on weather, he said, is still partly "pure
guesswork."
"The El Ninos provide the source for storms across the Pacific
Ocean and the United States, enhancing the rainfall potential in
storms," Murakami said. "But it doesn’t necessarily mean wet
weather."
And this is where the confusion begins. People associate El Nino
with tremendous rainfall and flooding, he said, but what people
don’t know is that for some parts of the globe, El Nino actually
means no rain.
"The phenomenon creates certain windflow patterns. There is
actually drought in Australia and Indonesia. It’s not like there’s
some kind of weather machine spitting out storms to the rest of the
United States," Murakami said, laughing.
By tracking El Nino in recent decades, Murakami said there is
actually no correlation between the strength of the phenomenon and
a wet winter in California. On the other hand, other areas of the
country, such as the southeast, can count on a wet El Nino.
"The public should understand, that if you live in a place where
they’re expecting wet weather, it’s not going to rain
everyday."
This year’s El Nino weighs in as the second largest on record,
disappointing early predictions for the strongest one ever. Despite
its high ranking, however, this year’s UCLA rainfall is close to
normal years.
To date, UCLA has received 10.66 inches of rainfall, compared to
normal readings of 7.88 inches. "But last year," smiled Murakami,
"we had 14.11 by this point. And last year was not an El Nino."
Two months of rain remain, however, and according to Murakami,
anything could happen. "It could really pick up," he said.
Murakami tells a story that he often tells those who ponder what
the future holds. During the winter of 1883-1884, downtown Los
Angeles received over 38 inches of rain, several times the normal
rainfall. But 25 of those inches came down in February and
March.
The meteorologist’s best advice? "Have an umbrella," he
said.