Buchanan clinches New Hampshire primary
Dole emerges close second, Alexander finishes third place
By John Digrado
Daily Bruin Staff
Upsetting GOP frontrunner Sen. Bob Dole in a race to the very
finish, conservative commentator Pat Buchanan stole New Hampshire
Tuesday with 27 percent of the vote in the first primary of the
1996 presidential election season.
"We’ve run a very positive campaign and we’ve given voice to
some of the voiceless folks in America, like workers whose jobs are
being shipped overseas," Buchanan told his supporters.
The victory casts doubt over the race for the Republican
nomination with a 30-state burst of primaries just ahead.
Dole, whose victory in the Iowa caucus last week gave him an
edge coming into the New Hampshire contest, took a close
second-place position in the vote with 26 percent of the vote –
barely edged out by the conservative rebel.
Former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander walked away in third
position with 23 percent, a gain of five percentage points over his
performance in last week’s Iowa contest.
For Dole, the loss came as a major setback to his faltering
campaign. Though coming into the primaries with a slight lead over
a thinning field of candidates, Dole’s performance last night may
indicate a weakening in the senator’s game plan.
Prior to the election, Dole seemed resigned to a muddied finish
in the primary, saying, "I’m feeling good about it right now, but
whatever happens, we’re going to North and South Dakota
tomorrow."
Despite Buchanan’s bid to remove Dole as the GOP nomination’s
front-running candidate, some analysts believed that Alexander
walked away from the election as the biggest gainer in spite of his
third place showing.
"It’s not because he (got) the most votes – it’s going to be a
very close race," said political science Professor Thomas Schwartz.
"Dole has a history of faltering in the primaries. He is just not
that good of a primary campaigner."
For Alexander, the strong showing brought credibility and was
likely to improve his fund raising just in time for the five-week
string of primaries through March. "This is a tremendous victory,"
Alexander said, later conceding that, "I have to start winning
soon."
A three-way battle after New Hampshire leaves the task of
whittling the Republican candidates to later states – good news for
Buchanan, who may expect Dole and Alexander to split the mainstream
Republican vote. But Alexander and Dole each stand to gain by those
states’ more moderate political views.
New Hampshire’s results are likely to winnow the field at the
bottom of the ballot, though none of the struggling candidates
would admit as much. Magazine tycoon Steven Forbes, particularly,
came in a disappointing fourth with 12 percent of the vote. He was
tied for the New Hampshire lead a month ago, but wilted as moderate
voters chose between Dole and Alexander.
Dole’s loss brought back haunting memories of his failed 1988
bid for the GOP nomination, where he was handily defeated by
former-President George Bush.
"Now I know why they call this the Granite State," Dole said.
"Because it’s so hard to crack."
Victory in New Hampshire, however narrow, would have boosted
Dole with his organizational and fund-raising advantages over the
rest of the field. Defeat does not necessarily doom him, but he had
hoped to vanquish Alexander and set up a two-way race with the
controversial Buchanan.
The state’s influence in past elections is undeniable. In 12
presidential election years, 11 candidates won here en route to the
White House. Clinton is the sole exception, finishing second in
1992. The results only underscore how far Dole has fallen since
last summer, when many in the party viewed his nomination as all
but inevitable.
As the race moves into Delaware, North and South Dakota and
Arizona, Schwartz predicted that the field will further narrow down
between Dole and Alexander.
"Dole and Alexander have all along been the only two candidates
who have a chance of winning, and Dole has a history of faltering,"
he said. "The guy who looks the strongest, if not in total votes,
but in improvements, will be Alexander," he speculated.
Of the bottom three candidates, Forbes’ fourth-place finish
brings into question his "4-3-2-1" strategy: placing fourth in
Iowa, third in New Hampshire, second in Delaware and North and
South Dakota, and winning in Arizona.
His fourth place finish last night leaves him lagging behind,
however, and Schwartz expected that voters will eventually turn
away from Forbes and his "flat-tax" platform for more experienced
and "credible" candidates.
Schwartz also expressed concern over Buchanan’s lack of
experience in the political arena as well.
"(Dole and Alexander have experience), Forbes and Buchanan have
not," he explained. "It’s like hiring a professor that has no
degrees and hasn’t published anything because the speech he gave to
a hiring committee sounds good – we just don’t elect presidents
that have absolutely no qualifications."Comments to
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