Logic prevails: UCLA leader of the Pac
By Eric BranchSummer Bruin Columnist
A wise man once said predictions are foolish. Of course, he was
correct. For proof of this, just pick up any of this summer’s
college football previews sometime next January. Then you can
snicker at a great number of prognostications: USC winning a
national championship, UCLA finishing fifth in the Pacific 10 and a
defensive player winning the Heisman.
It’s like vowing to get a 4.0 fall quarter. It always sounds
good in September, but by January, the mere idea is laughable. The
reason is that these forecasters make the error of predicting the
season on the basis of talent, returning starters and strength of
schedule.
Armed with this knowledge, I examined the upcoming Pac-10 season
by taking a slightly different approach. Although exhausting, this
analysis took talent and the other useless variables with a grain
of salt. The purpose of the study was simply to find who would
represent the Pac-10 in the Rose Bowl.
After countless hours of research, I’m pleased to announce the
news is good … UCLA will win the Pac-10. The evidence is
irrefutable.
OREGON – The Ducks have a new coach the year after going to the
Rose Bowl. Four coaches in the past 30 years have taken over the
past year’s conference champion and not one has returned to
Pasadena the following year. One down, eight to go.
WASHINGTON STATE – Wazzu head coach Mike Price has never had
back-to-back winning seasons in his 14-year career. Last year, the
Cougars posted an 8-4 record. Bye, bye.
OREGON STATE – Let’s see … why won’t the Oregon State Beavers
go to the Rose Bowl? A whole novel could be devoted to this
subject. It could detail each of their NCAA record 24 consecutive
losing seasons. It could examine their 54-212 record in those 24
years and it could attempt to explain their 21 consecutive losses
to USC.
But save time and read the Cliff Notes. They stink. The end.
ARIZONA STATE – See if you can find a pattern:
* 1970s : .763 winning percentage, seven bowl games.
* 1980s : .673 winning percentage, four bowl games.
* 1990s : .455 winning percentage, zero bowl games.
Add the fact that last year’s 3-8 record was the school’s worst
in 48 years with the above information and the guess is the Sun
Devils aren’t a team on the rise.
ARIZONA – The girl with a third eye never goes to the prom, nuns
never go to hell and the Wildcats never go to the Rose Bowl. They
remain the only Pac-10 team never to see Pasadena in January. Not
even Teddy Bruschi returning for his seventh year can reverse this
trend.
SOUTHERN CAL – The Sports Illustrated jinx. SI picked them No. 1
in the nation. This happened to Arizona last year and they ended up
losing to Utah in the Freedom Bowl. The game was so bad that the
bowl doesn’t exist anymore. It’s really too bad because Southern
Cal really has a lot of talent this year. HA, HA.
Incidentally, the photo of Keyshawn Johnson grinning on the SI
cover was taken right after receiving a couple thousand bucks from
his agent.
CALIFORNIA – Switched from artificial turf to a grass field this
year. Bad karma.
STANFORD – They have a new coach, Tyrone Willingham, who stands
about 4-feet-6-inches and weighs 37 pounds. Besides this, their
starting quarterback is Mark Butterfield.
A final point to be made here is the fact that they are a bad
football team.
WASHINGTON – The Huskies are still on probation. Oh, that’s
over? Well, they are switching to purple helmets and white shoes.
Since 1946, teams making uniform changes the year after coming off
a two-year probation for improper loans to players named Billy Joe
Hobert have not gone to the Rose Bowl.
UCLA – Four years ago the Pac-10 switched to an eight-game
schedule, in which each team skips one Pac-10 opponent. Since the
inception of the schedule, the team that UCLA has skipped has gone
on to play in the Rose Bowl. The only exception to this rule
occurred in ’93 when UCLA went. The Bruins skip … OSU this
year.
See Oregon State above and you will realize that running water
will appear in Corvalis before OSU heads to the Rose Bowl. So, let
the celebration begin, cut short the post-Christmas ski trip and
prepare to spend New Year’s in Pasadena.
Obviously, this prediction is foolproof.